Science Page: Monitoring breeding herd production data to detect PRRSV outbreaks

This is our Friday rubric: every week a new Science Page from the Bob Morrison’s Swine Health Monitoring Project. The previous editions of the science page are available on our website.

This week, we are sharing a report from Drs. Gustavo Silva and Daniel Linhares and his team at Iowa State University.

Key points:

  • Systematic monitoring of key production performance indicators allowed for early detection of PRRS outbreaks.
  • Number of abortions was the most efficient parameter, detecting outbreaks up to 4 weeks before being reported to MSHMP.
  • Early detection of signals associated with disease outbreaks may help in preventing further spread of the virus to other herds, and allowing implementation of rapid response intervention(s).

Two-years worth of reproductive performance data from a production system with 14 breeding herds (1,512 herd weeks) was gathered. Weekly data on number of abortions, pre-weaning mortality (PWM) and difference between total born and born alive (neonatal losses), were merged with weekly MSHMP PRRSV status. A statistical process control method was used to scan production data for significant deviations from baseline.

Linhares EWMA application to detect significant deviation in abortions.gif
Example of EWMA application to detect significant deviation in abortions, compared to changes in PRRS status over time.

The time-to-detect outbreak, percentage of early detection of PRRSv-associated productivity deviations, and relative sensitivity and specificity of the production data monitoring system were determined relative to the MSHMP.

Abortion signals were detected 1 to 4 weeks before outbreaks were reported to the MSHMP. Most pre-weaning mortality signals coincided with the outbreak date reported to the MSHMP, and prenatal losses signals were detected from 1 to 3 weeks after the MSHMP reported outbreak date. Overall, the models had high relative sensitivity (range 85.7 to 100%) and specificity (range 98.5% to 99.6%) when comparing to the changes in
PRRS status reported in the MSHMP database.

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